Clean-Energy

Executive Summary Investment Thesis: Enphase pioneered microinverter technology, converting solar panel DC power to AC at the panel level rather than centrally. The company dominates residential solar with 50%+ U.S. market share, offering superior safety, reliability, and monitoring. However, the solar industry crater—California NEM 3.0 gutted residential economics, interest rate shock killed financing, inventory glut from 2022 bubble—drove revenue down 43% ($2.3B → $1.3B) and stock down 90% ($340 → $30). At current valuation (P/FCF 8.1x, P/E 20x after 60% margin compression), this exhibits classic “maximum pessimism” characteristics. The question: cyclical bottom or structural decline? ...

Executive Summary Investment Thesis: NextEra Energy operates the world’s largest renewable energy portfolio while owning Florida Power & Light (FPL), America’s most efficient regulated utility. The company generates stable earnings from regulated operations while capturing renewable energy growth through NextEra Energy Resources. However, valuation at 26x P/E with 8% ROE, deteriorating free cash flow conversion, and $82B debt load (1.64x equity) create limited margin of safety despite the quality franchise. ...