Super Micro Computer (SMCI)
Executive Summary Investment Thesis: SMCI is a textbook value trap—a commodity server assembler with collapsing margins, unresolved accounting issues, and zero competitive moat trading at 29x earnings despite 52% decline from peak. The AI infrastructure boom temporarily inflated results, but mean reversion is inevitable. Business Classification: Cyclical (commodity hardware at peak cycle) Current Valuation Assessment: Current Price: $58.68 Estimated Intrinsic Value: $18-30 Margin of Safety: -95% to -51% (OVERVALUED) Recommendation: STRONG AVOID Recommended Entry Zones: ...