Technology

Executive Summary Investment Thesis: Adobe represents a rare collision of quality (89% gross margins, 40% ROE, fortress moat) and opportunity (43% drawdown, trading at decade-low multiples). However, the thesis hinges on a critical binary question: Is AI a moat strengthener or destroyer? Current valuation implies only 4-5% perpetual growth—absurdly pessimistic for a subscription juggernaut with 95% recurring revenue and 90%+ retention. Margin compression (460bps) signals defensive spending against existential AI threats. Buy with eyes wide open. ...

Executive Summary Investment Thesis: TSMC is the world’s dominant pure-play semiconductor foundry with an impregnable moat in leading-edge chip manufacturing, benefiting from AI/HPC secular tailwinds. However, valuation offers minimal margin of safety at current prices despite exceptional business quality. Business Classification: Stalwart (large, established company with 10-15% growth potential) Current Valuation Assessment: Current Price: $295.68 Estimated Intrinsic Value: $210 - $255 Margin of Safety: -16% to -39% (NEGATIVE) Recommendation: HOLD / WAIT FOR PULLBACK Recommended Entry Zones: ...

Executive Summary Investment Thesis: Micron is a leading memory chip manufacturer riding the AI wave but trading at peak valuations with extreme cyclicality risk. While fundamentally recovering strongly from 2023’s downturn, the stock has run ahead of intrinsic value with minimal margin of safety. Business Classification: Cyclical (highly sensitive to semiconductor industry cycles) Current Valuation Assessment: Current Price: $223.77 Estimated Intrinsic Value: $140 - $170 Margin of Safety: -32% to -24% (OVERVALUED) Recommendation: AVOID at current levels Recommended Entry Zones: ...

Executive Summary Investment Thesis: Salesforce dominates CRM software with a wide moat built on switching costs and ecosystem lock-in. The company transformed from growth-obsessed (2% margins) to profitability-focused (20% margins) in three years while generating $12.4B in free cash flow. However, at 37x earnings with 8% revenue growth, valuation offers minimal margin of safety. Business Classification: Stalwart (large company, 8-10% growth) Current Valuation Assessment: Current Price: $251.46 Estimated Intrinsic Value: $250-270 Margin of Safety: ~0-5% Recommendation: HOLD (if owned) / WAIT (if buying) Recommended Entry Zones: ...

Executive Summary Investment Thesis: TXN represents a fortress-quality semiconductor business trading at a cyclical trough. The company’s dominant position in analog chips, combined with massive 300mm fab investments creating unassailable cost advantages, offers a compelling 3-5 year compounding opportunity with 26-30% margin of safety. Business Classification: Stalwart (Large-cap with 10-12% growth potential) Current Valuation Assessment: Current Price: $162.57 Estimated Intrinsic Value: $200-235 Margin of Safety: 23-31% Recommendation: BUY Recommended Entry Zones: ...

Executive Summary Investment Thesis: Alibaba represents a high-quality Chinese technology conglomerate trading at a significant discount due to regulatory overhang and geopolitical concerns, not fundamental deterioration. With improving margins, dominant market position, and a PEG ratio of 0.28, the risk-reward is compelling for patient investors who understand China risk. Business Classification: Stalwart (large company with steady growth, improving profitability) Current Valuation Assessment: Current Price: $175.76 Estimated Intrinsic Value: $260-$320 Margin of Safety: 32-45% Recommendation: BUY (with China risk awareness) Recommended Entry Zones: ...

Executive Summary Investment Thesis: Meta owns the world’s largest social network ecosystem (Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp) with 3+ billion users, generating $164B revenue with elite 38% net margins. The business benefits from powerful network effects and delivers exceptional $54B annual free cash flow. However, Reality Labs burns $15B+ yearly with no clear path to profitability, and Zuckerberg’s absolute control via dual-class shares prevents shareholder intervention on capital allocation. Business Classification: Fast Grower (transitioning to Stalwart) ...